This article showed up in my inbox on Friday, Feb. 9, 2024. It’s from Doug Casey’s International Man newsletter. He mostly covers finance, and international finance at that, he often has excellent insights into geopolitics as that influences finance. I couldn’t find anything to add or disagree with, so I’m posting the entire newsletter here.
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Here’s Why The US Border Crisis Spells Serious Trouble…
by Chris MacIntosh
It makes no difference what men think of war, said the judge. War endures. As well ask men what they think of stone. War was always here. Before man was, war waited for him. The ultimate trade awaiting its ultimate practitioner. That is the way it was and will be. That way and not some other way.
from “Blood Meridian,” a 1985 novel by American author Cormac McCarthy
Ok, many of you may well be aware of this, especially if you’re American. If not, here is what’s been happening. The State of Texas put up razor wire at the border to stop the roughly 12,000 illegal migrants crossing daily. The feds got their knickers in a knot, came down, and pulled it all down opening the floodgates again.
In a tit for tat back and forth, the Texans put it back up. This all ended up in court where the supreme court said that actually stopping illegal immigration was… um, illegal. So the Texans climbed onto their horses, rode back home, and promptly ignored this and invoked their rights as a state to protect themselves. It’s worth remembering that the US is not a democracy, as many think, but rather a republic. That’s important in terms of the legality of what just happened. Not that ultimately legality matters when the country is clearly run by criminals, but you get the point. Ruffles are being feathered.
In any event, it’s all heating up.
14 Red States ‘Stand with Texas’ in Border Fight with Biden Administration
President Biden has instructed his agencies to ignore federal statutes that mandate the detention of illegal immigrants. The failure of the Biden Administration to fulfill the duties imposed by Article IV, § 4 has triggered Article I, § 10, Clause 3, which reserves to this State the right of self-defense,” the statement continues.
“For these reasons, I have already declared an invasion under Article I, § 10, Clause 3 to invoke Texas’s constitutional authority to defend and protect itself,” the statement adds.
That authority is the supreme law of the land and supersedes any federal statutes to the contrary.
What followed has been governors of Oklahoma…
Florida…
Virginia…
South Dakota…
Georgia…
Montana…
Utah….
West Virginia…
Arkansas…
All in all, 25 governors of various states so far have decided that the feral guvmint is, in fact, feral.
While following events, I had this map to share with you.
And then, as we went to hit publish, we found that certain states have sent troops to support Texas. Things really are moving fast.
And what about the Feral Guvmint?
Defeating Texas will take five days, or five weeks, or five months, but certainly no longer than that.
Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin Powers
So as you can see, what we’d been predicting for years now seems to be rapidly evolving. You’ve got largely a “left” vs “right” political split, and frankly, I don’t see how this gets resolved without… ahem… problems. I mean, the ideological views in the country are so stark. Consider gun laws. On the one hand you’ve the “pry it from my dead hands” folk and on the other we’ve got alphabet people who say that only the military can use weapons and even then, they’ll demand they’re only ok with vegan hand grenades. I think bridging this divide is at this point impossible.
Ok, so as fun as this is, what I’d like to point out is that decentralisation is the key to undoing the centralisation problem (WHO, UN, WEF, etc., etc.). Just as Bitcoin, for example, is one answer to Fedcoin and Klaus Coin, we are now seeing secessionist movements across the globe. Way back in 2016 I recall writing about this phenomenon, and since then, we’ve seen secessionist movements in Spain, France (yellow vests), and many more. Even in woke Canada, premier Smith defied Ottawa’s taxes as well as promising a doubling of oil and gas production.
The thing with humans is they’re social creatures. The majority go along to get along and don’t want to ruffle feathers. It’s why so many wore those stupid face masks despite agreeing with you when you pointed out exasperated that they were so obviously completely pointless. They’d nod their heads, mumble, and then put them on anyway. And what for? The 18-year-old pimple-faced teenager at the supermarket asking where your mask was or the overweight middle-aged Karen at the gas station doing the same. Of course, the answer was to laugh at them and go about your business like the sovereign individual that you are, but most didn’t and most won’t. That’s just how it is.
Anyway, the globalists’ push for more and more has been met with another problem the Davos crowd has not perhaps thought much about. It is a physiological phenomenon that has been shown to prove true and it is this: Humans are more likely to break more laws if one law is too strict.
Think of all the completely insane laws that we’ve had to endure in the last four years. Yup, Western nations are all rapidly turning into Argentina — a place where the only way to survive has been to flout the myriad destructive laws. Argie, by the way, is on a different trajectory to the West and priced rather attractively vs the West. Hence our positioning.
Here’s something else to ponder. When the states send their tax dollars to the feds and the feds are openly using those same dollars to do damage to the states, then at what point do the states say, “Nyet, no mas?”
Here’s US public debt.
Total US Public Debt
And keep in mind this needs servicing.
It isn’t even just the fact the debt can’t be serviced at the current rate and absolutely not with any meaningful increase in bond yields. It is the fact that the moment some of the aforementioned states decide to say nyet to sending money back to the Feral Guvmint, then foreign holders of US debt could potentially begin to imagine what things look like with a fragmenting America.
Imagine it this way. You lend money to a real estate developer who has say 300 houses, and you’re told he has control over all 300 houses. This is your collateral. Then, before you’ve been paid back, you see that 100 of them just got sold out without the developer banking the proceeds — a “dispute,” you’re told. Not only do you worry that your collateral isn’t what you thought it would be, you realise that all the other creditors who bought the same debt you bought might just see it too and head for the exits before you do. Oh, what to do?
And as far as investing in foreign sovereign debt markets go, take a look at Europe where the globalists, despite trying to, never managed to consolidate their debts within the Eurozone and now are trying to manage a consolidated currency system without having a consolidated bond system. And guess what? The Europeans are all having secessionist movements, too. So…
All of this points to the need for a massive distraction because the peasants are about to get hosed. All those pensions they think they have. All those insurance products they own, the currency they hold much of their savings in. The real estate markets in which they’ve their life savings invested into. All of it tied together in one big ball of leveraged rehypothecated ball of yarn. So, a distraction is desperately needed, lest the peasants bring back the guillotine for the politicians and bankers.
Aaaand here it is…
They’re prepping the peasants in the UK for war. Look over here. It’s Russia, the big boogeyman.
And in lockstep over in Australia…
This particular little piece caught my attention:
As the risk of Australia being drawn into a major war increase, we are facing a short window of opportunity to address some of the shortfalls in our defence capability.
Years ago I took a course in NLP (neuro linguistic programming). Let me tell you that this shit is straight out of the manual, and let me make this very clear so that nobody can say they were not warned. You are being programmed for what has already been decided.
The above is in complete lockstep. The UK, then Australia. Next up, Canada and NZ. Watch!
But I’m sure it’s merely coincidence. Remember to hate the Russkies and the Chinese (that is coming, too). It’s the 250-year revolutionary war cycle, folks. I wish it wasn’t, but it is, so…
Now, I know this is predominantly an investment publication, but realise this. Having money is of no use to any of us if we’re being dressed in military garb, black boots, and sent into the meat grinder, so if you’re in literally any of the Western nations (US, as just spoken about, UK, Canookland, Australia, or NZ), the timeframe between now and when your government decides you need to go “fight the enemy” is narrowing, so warm up those second passports, residency visas, and have a plan. If none of the above transpires, you can simply say, “Oh, it was crazy Chris,” and blame me. I’ve got thick skin. Seriously, I can take it. Send me hate mail. I’d love to get it, because it means I’ve been wrong. There literally is no downside.
Now, what does it mean for our portfolio? Well, if I’m not wrong, it means good things, because the enormity of capital sitting in bonds will have to seek safety and shelter… somewhere. My guess is that actual “stuff” makes for a solid bet, and even if this doesn’t happen, this “stuff” is the cheapest it has been both on an absolute and relative basis for donkey’s years.